While I am maturing, I discover sometimes difficult to seize leisure time for relaxing, chatting with my fellows, and touring. A variety of trifles just appear to bother me without any adumbration. For instance, I have been postoning meeting, dinning, and junketing over the period of preparing the Analytical Writing section of GRE. Nevertherless, schedule is still so tight and not as comfortable as I considered before a 9th, April--the day I took contest of AW section.
Consequently, in my view it seems that those phenomena are symbols of my growing up. The procedure of growing up to a adult is a process in which various paramount and relatively paltry matters play games with me. I would be a so-called "successful" man, provided that I won the majority plays aforementioned.
Another thing: Learing English seems to me that it is no longer a agony but rather certain pastime, which is more and more so during my preparing for GRE. This morning a tall, slim and delicate girl lined up in front of me, when I had breakfast at Xinxi dinning-room. So engaging, comely, entrancing...Hahahaa...
Apr 15, 2008
Apr 10, 2008
Issue 212
TOPIC: ISSUE212 - "If a goal is worthy, then any means taken to attain it is justifiable."
WORDS: 568 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-8 16:19:46
This statement asserts that any method to fulfill a target is justifiable, provided that the target is of value. I concede that in many cases one should try his or her best and makes tools of every potential condition to achieve inner object of the person. However, before one takes any practical action to approach personal or private ideal, he or she has to take into account a myriad of sociological and political factors--such as morality, feasibility, conscience, etc.
Admittedly, one may be encouraged to achieve a worthwhile goal, no matter which means is adopted. This is especially true when the goal would bring to society great value and substantial material or mental benefits. Consider Edison, an inventor of America, who patented for more than one thousand inventions, including microphone, phonograph, incandescent lamp, to name just a few. Since incandescent lamp would enable humans to commit various sorts of actions--such as researching, reading, and studying, any one would agree that it was inerrant for Edison to bring the lamp to real world. In effect, Edison had attempted to use many differing materials before he eventually discovered that the element W is the most appropriate. Therefore, in the realm of sciences, scientists are frequently encouraged to take all kinds of research means. Besides, government sometimes even provides additional material resources and financial resources.
However, when it comes to the area of politics, whether to adopt a variety of methods to accomplish the goals of politic leaders is quite questionable. Fist of all, a goal that some specific public officials believe is great may be reckoned as meaningless or even anti-social one. For instance, the Nazism was deeply believed by Hitler and was advocated by many adherents in that time. In order to realize racist nationalism, Nazis carried out several policies, including national expansion, state control of economy, and so on. Nevertheless, any means taken to attain Hitler's thought should be banned and fought back. In addition, in physics, for example, the perpetual machine was once considered to be a unifying goal in physics, and a few physicists were devoted to manufacturing such a machine. In this case, any effort will surely fail, since the machine violates the law of conversation of energy. Thus, any way that defies natural laws ought to be abandoned.
Yet on balance, when it comes to determine a means which aims to fulfill a certain goal is justifiable or not should be based on some criteria--for example, morality, sciences and feasibility. Generally speaking, people are supposed to take everything available to accomplish a goal, on condition that the goal is realistic and means taken are morally and ethically correct. Consider the process that Homer wrote his most noble works--Iliad and Odyssey which describe famous wars of ancient Greek. Homer did his most work on addition, expurgation and modification on the achievements of others. However, if a professor today utilized others' scientific outcomes without authority, this professor is likely to commit the crime of plagiary. Then, mores is the fist factor to be though before choosing a available way.
In summary, albeit a special goal is appealing for us, we must comply with prevailing ethics in our societal life and guarantee that actions we adopt obey laws of both sciences and politics. Furthermore, due morality and laws are changing with the advancement of humans, we are required to keep our mores and notions abreast of mainstream.
Argument 241
TOPIC: ARGUMENT241 - The following appeared in a memo at the XYZ company.
"When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees assistance in creating resumés and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany's services: last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. Recently, it has been proposed that we use the less-expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year. Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. After all, last year Delany's clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh's clients took nine."
WORDS: 486 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-8 21:34:22
In this argument, the verdict is that Delany Personnel Firm is superior to Walsh Personnel Firm in training employees who are fired by XYZ company. To substantiate this conclusion, the arguer compares the situation of Delany and Walsh, and further argues that the number of staffers of Delany outnumbers those of Walsh. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several critical blemishes as discussed below.
To begin with, the fact that last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not might not necessarily induced by Delany. Alternative explanations do exist, which would weaken the conclusion. A possible case is that fired employees who turned to Delany were originally much more talented than those who did not. Moreover, the proportion of staffers who used Delany and quickly found jobs is left untended by the speaker. If the percentage is merely 2%, which is not a particularly large number, Delany indeed offered little to their participants.
Secondly, to strengthen the culmination, the arguer also cites that eight years ago Walsh poorly helped workers laid off by XYZ company find subsequent jobs in a short time--a year. However, this fact which lacks sufficient evidence may not be as powerful as the arguer assumes. After all, the time of eight years is quite a long period, in which everything might change considerably. It is highly possible that Walsh corporation now is extremely competent and much more experienced in vocational training than that enterprise was eight years ago, which is not obviated in this statement. In addition, subjective situation might be a paramount factor too. Perhaps the job market eight years ago was not as prosperous as it is today, which may lend support from the speaker's reasoning.
Thirdly, the arguer is too cursory to arrive at the ultimateness that Delany is better than Walsh by simply taking superficial factors--number of crews and branch offices--into account. These two numbers can not represent anything which could be used to evaluate the two companies. Perhaps greater size of corporation may ironically imply lower efficiency of management. In the last of this statement, the arguer says that Delany's clients took an average of six months to find jobs while Walsh's customers took nine last year, which is also unconvincing. Even though clientele of Walsh took longer time to seize jobs than those of Delany, perhaps the jobs found by Walsh's customers were much more promising than ones caught by Delany's clientele.
In summary, this argument indeed suffers from a few vital fallacies as discussed above. To better solidify the culmination, the speaker would have to demonstrate that Delany's clientele find jobs much more quickly and professions are better than Walsh's, and prove that Walsh corporation has not developed a lot during the past eight years. Consequently, without considering and ruling out potential explanations aforementioned, the speaker's conclusion would otherwise be weakened.
Argument 164
TOPIC: ARGUMENT164 - Claitown University needs both affordable housing for its students and a way to fund the building of such housing. The best solution to this problem is to commission a famous architect known for experimental and futuristic buildings. It is common knowledge that tourists are willing to pay money to tour some of the architect's buildings, so it can be expected that tourists will want to visit this new building. The income from the fees charged to tourists will soon cover the building costs. Furthermore, such a building will attract new students as well as donations from alumni. And even though such a building will be much larger than our current need for student housing, part of the building can be used as office space.
WORDS: 460 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-8 14:39:23
In this argument, the speaker asserts that Claitown University should hire an illustrious architect known for experimental and futuristic architecture to construct a brand-new building in order to cater students' needs. To substantiate this culmination, the speaker chiefly lists a few benefits of inviting a prominent architect and predicts that new housing will no doubt increase financial revenue. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several critical blemishes, as discussed below.
To begin with, whether tourists will surely be eager to pay money to visit a new housing built by the distinguished architect is questionable, and is not convincing as the arguer stands. Though tourists prefer some existed architectures which have been finished by the engineer, the new housing might nevertheless be an uninspired effort, which thus will not attract people's attention. Moreover, the new housing is supposed to be resided by university students; therefore this building may not suitable for visit by people outside campus.
Secondly, the speaker unfairly assumes that the income from the fees charged to tourists will doubtlessly outnumber the cost of constructing such a building, which lacks sufficient and powerful evidence. After all, the number of tourists who are likely to pay a visit to Claitown is unknown. Perhaps Claitown is not an ideal resort for tour viewing, which would otherwise undermine the conclusion. In addition, supposing that the money charged to tourists exceeds the ability of people, comprehensive income thus is not guaranteed.
Thirdly, whether new students can afford to dwell in such a new housing is questionable. It is highly possible that some students' family circumstances are not so wealthy that they prefer to living in old housings. Besides, the speaker fails to show any reason why alumni should donate to building a new dorm for Claitown University. This presumption would be further discredited if graduates from Claitown University work for unpromising corporations. Moreover, since the new building is constructed for the use of dwelling, it is quite skeptic that the new housing can be shaped to cater office's need. Furthermore, professors who work in that dorm would have to move out, supposing the enrollment of Claitown University sharply increases next year, which may make faculty uncomfortable.
In summary, this argument indeed suffers from a few vital fallacies, as discussed above, and is not as cogent as the arguer advocates. To solidify the verdict, the speaker would have to demonstrate that innumerous tourists are planning to visit that fresh housing and enough financial income is secured, and further prove that students will be glad to live in this dorm. Without considering and obviating those factors aforementioned, it is too cursory of the arguer to arrive at the conclusion. Consequently, we need more detailed information to better evaluate this statement.
Issue 69
TOPIC: ISSUE69 - "Government should place few, if any, restrictions on scientific research and development"
WORDS: 540 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-7 16:25:26
The speaker asserts that research on various scientific domains should not be restricted by any form of action from government. I concede that a few studies conducted by scientists ought to be managed by our political leaders. With few exceptions, I strongly agree with speaker. Scientific researches, including physics, biology, chemistry, etc, are people's exploration of natural, politics, society, and thus should be encouraged instead of limited by not only government but also the masses.
Admittedly, some sorts of studies in sciences violate certain kind of morality, ethics or mores to which each mentally-normal member of society is hold. The potential outcomes of such researches would endanger our daily life, provided that governors place no restriction on scientists who are actively engaged in research activities. For instance, the subject of cloning human beings is quite attractive for certain biologists who are eager to pursue the law of nature. However, any action that attempts to produce a copy of a person, in any laboratory of the world, must be banned, with a view to its various deleterious effects that would have on ourselves. On the other hand, research on atomic energy ought to be carefully designed and planned by government. For the peace of all the nations on the earth, atomic bomb, one achievement of studying atoms, can not be put into practical use.
However, with a few exceptions in which scientists may bring harmful accomplishments that would conduce towards catastrophes to populace, government is supposed not to shape what scientists can cogitate but rather to encourage our elites to cultivate new knowledge and technologies by supporting manpower, material resources and financial resources. In the realm of astronomy, perhaps the paradigmatic negative archetype was Bruno who advanced the cosmic theory of an infinite universe. Unfortunately, Bruno was burned to death at the stake by the Inquisition of his time. Suppose that Bruno did not die at an early age, Armstrong would have visited the moon much earlier. Another example involves the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s of China. During that period, any sort of scientific experiment was forbidden by political leaders. As a result, the level of sciences and technologies of China had far fallen behind the stream of other countries.
Furthermore, our society is replete with examples of scientific researches, supported by government, that have brought positive attainments that make our life much more convenient, easy, and comfortable. Consider the disease of pneumonia which had killed many people's life in the 19th-century. The most recent half-century, medical researches have been conducted increasing by consortiums and governments, and also solved many life-threatening diseases. For instance, pneumonia is no longer an incurable disease for humans; patients who develop high blood pressure have better quality of life; and genetic engineering makes AIDS a less suffering disease. All of these accomplishments can not be fulfilled under a variety of confines from political figures.
In summary, though in certain cases studies on sciences and technologies should be guided by our government, under most circumstances public officials are supposed to provide every possible and helpful situation for scientists' research. In turn, with substantial materials and funds scientists will advance further knowledge and newer technologies that will no doubt make our society more civilized, tolerant, and respectful.
Argument 156
TOPIC: ARGUMENT156 - The following is taken from an advertisement placed in a weekly business magazine by the Dickens Academy.
"We distributed a survey to senior management at International Mega-Publishing, Inc. The result of the survey clearly indicates that many employees were well prepared in business knowledge and computer skills, but lacked interpersonal skills to interact gracefully with customers. International Mega-Publishing decided to improve customer satisfaction by sending their newly hired employees to our one-day seminars. Since taking advantage of our program, International Mega-Publishing has seen a sharp increase in sales, an indication that the number of their disgruntled customers has declined significantly. Your company should hire Dickens and let us turn every employee into an ambassador for your company."
WORDS: 444 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-7 21:39:01
In this argument, the speaker advocates that each company should employ Dickens Academy to train the company's staffers and will no doubt increase efficiency of crews as a result. To substantiate the culmination, the speaker chiefly cites an example of International Mega-Publishing, Inc. which has yet sent its employee to Dickens for a vocational training. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several critical blemishes, as discussed below.
To begin with, the arguer fails to provide any practical evidence to demonstrate that the result of the survey, conducted by Dickens Academy, to senior management at International Mega-Publishing, Inc. is credible and convincing. All we know from this statement is solely represented by the speaker himself or herself. Without sufficient information about methods used in that survey, the outcomes of which is lame and unconvincing. Moreover, the participants in the study are senior managers that are quite differing from newly hired employees. Therefore, even though the conclusion of the study is cogent, it should not be generalized to fresh staff, and the behavior of Mega-Publishing is ridiculous.
Secondly, a sharp increase in Mega-Publishing's sales does not necessarily imply that the number of their disgruntled customers has declined considerably. The arguer mistakenly assumes a correlation amounts to a cause-and0-effect nexus. There are a myriad of potential factors that would cause increased profits of Mega-Publishing. A possible reason is that quality of products published by Mega corporation has greatly ameliorated; thus clientele are much more inclined to purchase books of Mega than other enterprises'. Or, it is highly probable that cost of manufacturing books has been sharply decreased and a low price of books is made possible, which is the actual reason attracting people.
Thirdly, the speaker does not state any statistics of disgruntled consumers either, which further undermines the culmination suggested in this argument. Perhaps customers who are unsatisfied with products of Mega are relatively a small group. Moreover, what purchasers are malcontent with are not conspicuously alleged. Therefore the possibility that the content of books is the actual factor contributable to people's dissatisfaction does exist. Without considering and obviating those potential causal factors, the arguer is too cursory to arrive at his or her ultimateness.
In summary, this argument indeed fails to convince us in many aspects, as discussed above. To solidify the verdict, the speaker would have to demonstrate that newly hired employees of Mega-Publishing lack the basic skills of communicating with clientele, and further prove that the reason why consumers are dissatisfied is just the performance of crew who work for Mega. Consequently, we need more detailed information to better evaluate the thread of reasoning in this argument.
Argument 111
TOPIC: ARGUMENT111 - The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Sock, Inc.
"A recent study of Dura-Sock wearers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented "Endure" manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. Dura-Sock has always advertised its use of the "Endure" process, but the new study shows that the average Dura-Sock customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, Dura-Sock customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Sock's stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that Dura-Sock can increase its profits by discontinuing its use of the "Endure" manufacturing process."
WORDS: 407 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-7 14:38:23
In this statement, the speaker suggests that profits of Dura-Sock can be increased through stopping its use of the ''Endure" manufacturing procedure. To substantiate this culmination, the arguer chiefly quotes the results responded by Dura-Sock customers recently. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several critical blemishes, as discussed below.
To begin with, the first outcome of the study conducted by Dura-Sock that clientele actually purchase new Dura-Socks every three months does not necessarily imply that customers do not care about quality of stock. The reason why customers buy new Dura-Socks is unknown. It is highly probable that high quality of socks produced by Dura-Sock has attracted people's attention, thus the masses are eager to buy Dura-Sock's products so frequently. Moreover, the method used in that study is not given in this statement, which possibly is not credible.
Secondly, consider the surveys sponsored in Dura-Sock's largest market, which is not so convincing as the arguer advocates. In the first place, the northeastern United States cities, the largest market of Dura-Sock, should not be considered as representative districts. The opinions of multitudes who live elsewhere are the same paramount as those northeastern cities. In the second place, the number of persons who participated in the survey is left untended by the speaker. If merely a few people, no more than 20, for example, have reflected their advice to Dura-Sock Company, the result of the survey is thus unpersuasive.
Thirdly, even though what the consumers are fond of is Dura-Sock's stylish appearance and availability in various colors, in effect respondents have not expressed the idea that they do not care how long Dura-Sock's socks would last at all. Perhaps the precondition of consumer's responses is just that the quality of socks manufactured by Dura-Sock is much better than other rivals’ socks. In addition, revenue of a company has to with a myriad of factors, including cost, efficiency of managers, and sales of product. It is ridiculous of the arguer to assume that discontinuing Dura-Sock's use of the ''Endure" manufacturing process will no doubt ameliorate its profits.
In summary, this argument indeed suffers from a few vital fallacies as discussed above. To solidify the ultimateness, the speaker would have to demonstrate that ordinary consumers do not pay attention to how long Dura-Sock's products last, and further provide more detailed information about the various factors in which customers are interested when they decide to buy socks.
Apr 7, 2008
Issue 185 Argument 9
TOPIC: ISSUE185 - "Scandals-whether in politics, academia, or other areas-can be useful. They focus our attention on problems in ways that no speaker or reformer ever could."
WORDS: 531 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-6 20:59:04
The speaker asserts that various kinds of scandals are useful in attracting our attention to important issues. However, in my view the speaker is cursory too claim that. I concede that in many cases scandals can call our attention to paramount societal or political problems. On the other hand, scandals can also cover certain important sociopolitical problems with which we fail to concern.
Admittedly, under a few circumstances, scandals can call people's attention to pressing matters that the masses would otherwise ignore. This is especially true in politics and academia, in which scandals of prominent political leaders or professors may arouse great concern of multitudes, in the present as well as the past. Perhaps the most distinguished scandal is the Watergate event. In this scandal, the president of U.S.A., Nixon, was eager to steal information from his rival, aiming to win the campaign. In effect, the behavior committed by Nixon violated the law of privacy, and eventually abdicated from the position of presidency. Without this scandal, people would never care about others' private information. Another example involves a physic professor in a university located in my city. A paper proposed by this professor was unveiled to be a plagiary, which considerably call the university community's attention to the problem of academia and resulted in a system-wide reform. Our academic areas are the dear beneficiary of such reform.
However, scandals sometimes can distract us from more paramount and pressing societal matters. For example, several years ago, a judger who worked in Chinese Football Tournament was forbidden to engage in even one football game in respect that he was discovered that he committed bribery from a few football clubs. Every new development in that scandal became front-page news in almost every newspaper of sports. Any way, did this scandal work any positive feedback to football sports? No. That scandal was solely one incidence of paltry corruption. Moreover, for more than one year, the scandal distracted us from our most important sports' problems, such as vocational training, athletes' health, and normal schedule of the tournament. Consequently, this football scandal did not bring to our society any useful function when in retrospect.
Furthermore, in the realm of entertainment, scandals can serve chiefly to distract us from urgent matters. Consider, for instance, Chen Guanxi, a Chinese actor, whose personal photos which were exposed to mass media a few months ago. These unmasked photos taken by Chen Guanxi involve many noble singers, actors and costume models, in which there are some intimate scenarios including Chen and those stars. Admittedly, this scandal sparked a debate about duties and obligations of prominent stars and forever increased the level of mores to which our public figures were held. Nevertheless, this photo-gate scandal has distracted the masses from more important issues in the realm of performing--new stream of music, great discs of other stars, and appealing teleplays. Therefore, this photo scandal indeed provides more deleterious effects than rewards to the area of entertainment.
In summary, scandals can flag paramount matters in society more effectively than any speaker or reformer. However, whether a scandal works more benefit than harm to a community or society ought to be judged on a case-by-case basis.
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT9 - The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."
WORDS: 443 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-6 20:59:04
In this argument, the verdict concluded by the speaker is that Omega University ought to immediately discontinue student evaluation of professors in order to enable its graduates to find better careers. To substantiate this culmination, the speaker compares the situations before and after the policy of students’ evaluation of faculties. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several critical blemishes, as discussed below.
To begin with, the fact that Omega professors have started to assign higher grades in their classes is not necessarily the result of teachers' feeling press from the evaluation procedure. The speaker fails to give evidence that professors are afraid that their students' low appraise will influence faculty’s salary or promotion. Perhaps this phenomenon is just the purpose that the new procedure of evaluating resolves to effect. It is highly possible that higher working efficiency of teachers in Omega University brings more vivid knowledge to its students, the performance of which indeed ameliorates.
Secondly, no valid data is provided by the arguer to demonstrate that potential employers conspicuously trust the grades at Omega are inflated. It is ridiculous of the arguer to assume that employers have such prejudice. The speaker has neither conducted a survey of investigating job market nor had conversations with employers in corporations outside Omega University. Therefore, this presumption lacks enough evidence to make it more convincing. The speaker would have to provide more detailed information about what potential employers are concerned with.
Thirdly, the fact that graduates of Omega University are not so successful at hunting jobs as those of Alpha University are also does not represent that Omega University's students are not sufficient skillful. Whether students of Omega University had found promising jobs more easily than graduates of Alpha University had before the new procedure of evaluation was carried out is left untended by the arguer. If Omega's graduates are difficult in finding jobs all the time, this fact would not be so powerful as the arguer states. Moreover, probably, current job market needs plenty of graduates who are good at business, which is the strongpoint of Alpha, but the advantage of Omega University is arts. Therefore, low rate of successful job findings does not surely imply that the new procedure works a negative function.
In summary, this statement actually suffers from a few vital fallacies as mentioned above. To solidify the ultimateness, the speaker would have to prove that professors of Omega are indeed afraid of low evaluation from their students, and further provide enough information about the current job market. Without considering and obviating those potential factors aforementioned, the speaker is too cursory to arrive at the conclusion.
Issue 131
TOPIC: ISSUE131 - "The arts (painting, music, literature, etc.) reveal the otherwise hidden ideas and impulses of a society."
WORDS: 544 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-6 11:23:46
The speaker asserts that arts can be used to unveil concealed ideas and impulses of a society. However, the speaker unfairly generalizes. I concede that in many cases arts can serve to call our attention to important hidden ideas and driven force of a society. On the other hand, arts can not represent certain notions of the masses. Moreover, artistic works may not be reckoned as successful, or even anti-social.
Admittedly, arts can serve chiefly to unmask special streams that we would otherwise neglect. For instance, the Divine Comedy, written by Dante, uncovered various unfair laws and rules conducted by political leaders. In this prominent book, hidden ideas and impulses were unveiled through symbolism and metaphor--such as hell, heaven, and monsters. Without Dante's artistic work, people today would never understand the true ideas of the multitudes of his period. Another paradigmatic archetype perhaps is Van Gogh who created impressionism on painting, which was accepted several years after his death. Albeit the works of Van Gogh were not recognized by people of his time, Van Gogh's paintings did represent certain impulses--postimpressionism in this case. If Van Gogh fails to pursue his ideas and faiths till he was not able to pick up a pencil, the appearance of impressional arts would otherwise be put off.
However, in most cases, art works stand the mainstream of social or political ideas and impulses, and are broadly recognized as great by their contemporaries. In the realm of literature, this is especially true. Consider Voltaire's works that represented the main trends amid literature--the Age of Enlightenment. Essays and articles written by Voltaire just reflect the thread of developments in human history. Or, consider Homer, a distinguished writer in Ancient Greek, who was famous for his two great works: Iliad and Odyssey which describe the noble wars of his age. In effect, Homer did most of his work on addition, expurgation and modification on the achievements of his contemporaries. Therefore, artistic works created by Homer actually recorded the paramount events in society--a myriad of wars in Ancient Greek.
Furthermore, when it comes to the field of music, the speaker's claim finds even less support from historical record. For instance, Nie Er, a prominent Chinese composer, created a great many art works including the national song of PRC. Nie Er composed most of his works during the 1950s when new ideas of liberation and individual freedoms dominated the society. The International Song, one of Nie Er's music, was considered as a representative work of that period. Another example involves Mozart. Even though Mozart experienced a short time of life in the world and passed away in his thirties, his artistic symphonies did stand the chief ideas, instead of hidden ideology, of his society. After all, monarchs of the Europe recognized Mozart's artistic greatness through granting him their most generous commissions--a symbol of mainstream culture of that period.
In summary, with a few exceptions in which arts are utilized to unveil undercover stream and unique creative impulses of a community or society, under most circumstances, arts created by plenty of historical and contemporary figures serve chiefly to reflect the prevailing attitudes and values of a society of their distinct dynasties. Consequently, in the final analysis, I tend to disagree with the speaker's claim.
Issue 31 Argument 218
TOPIC: ISSUE31 - "Money spent on research is almost always a good investment, even when the results of that research are controversial."
WORDS: 531 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-5 21:07:51
The speaker asserts that it is almost always wise to spend money on research, whether the results of that research are positive or negative to us. However, in my view the arguer unfairly generalizes. In some cases, money or other kind of resource should be attributed to study in these cases, while in some other cases it is not.
To begin with, in certain areas it is ridiculous to invest in researching, because no consequence would be attained. This is especially true in natural sciences. Perhaps the paradigmatic archetype is the perpetual motion machine, which any sort of research on this subject is of little value to society or physics, in the present and the past. The reason for this is simple: the ideal of manufacturing a perpetual motion machine violates the basic physic law which is already demonstrated by theoretical physicists; therefore it is impossible at all to devise such a machine. Another example involves one famous people in history--Robert Owen who described a ideal society: Utopia, in which everyone was born equally, no war, no starvation, and no information was necessary to be hidden. In effect the Utopia defied the natural law of developments of human beings, and was proved to be a paradoxical idea eventually. In short, research that has been shown to be false should not be concerned.
Aside from the cases aforementioned, I strongly agree that we ought to spend money, time, raw materials, and any other necessary investment on a research conducted by prominent scientists. For instance, in the time of Bruno, the study of astronomy was considered as barbaric by esteemed political leaders. However, by utilizing the theory that Earth and other planets revolve around the sun, advanced by Copernicus, Bruno ultimately achieved his most distinguished theory: the cosmic theory of an infinite universe which profoundly influenced the developments of astronomy and physics. Therefore, Bruno's study in astronomy should be encouraged instead of being restricted. Consider Freud, for instance, whose psychoanalytic theories, which initially met with hostility, greatly affected 20th-century thought. Consequently, people should try their best to support these categories of research.
In the realm of business, larger investment on research tends to guarantee bigger economic success. For example, IBM was once argued that it should not be devoted to the basic research of mathematic. However, various outcomes held of the study of mathematic contribute considerably to IBM's economic achievement today. When it comes to history, this is particularly true. Consider the pyramid in Egypt. Albeit many historians once opposed that pyramids should be left untouched and thus would help protecting that marvelous architectures. Yet, the government still invests on researching pyramid and eventually found out many precious cultural relics from several pyramids. Thus, it is wise to encourage people to go on in their researches.
In summary, with few exceptions in which research would not bring out any constructive result, to spend money on all fields of study is almost invariably a inerrant decision. Therefore, the next key determinant is that experts in these fields should try their best effort to guarantee that outside resources must be correctly utilized in appropriate subjects rather than such ones as perpetual motion machine and Utopia.
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT218 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.
"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."
WORDS: 444 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-5 21:07:51
In this argument, the speaker concludes that profits of Hyper-Go Toy Company will no doubt increase after the company discontinues all action toys and focus on educational toys. To substantiate the verdict, the arguer cites the results of their customer surveys, in which parents are shown to be more concerned with youthful violence and to be more worried about education for their children. Besides, the fact that family income is growing and profits of other companies that have already begun to sell educational toys are increasing is also reckoned as powerful reason by the speaker. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several blemishes as discussed below.
To begin with, the decline of sales of Fierce Fighter toy airplane is not necessarily the result of the change of the respect that children’s parents are chiefly concerned. This fact may have other alternative explanations. For example, the quality of toy airplane had fallen sharply and thus children did not like any more. Or, the phenomenon that toy airplane had been a best seller for three years implies that almost every family owns a toy airplane and now they do not need such a toy any longer. Moreover, the credibility of surveys is quite questionable, since no statistics are given in this statement. Perhaps parents responded the studies were a small proportion and therefore did not represent the majority of parents.
Secondly, whether educational toys indeed attribute to the increased profits of other toy companies needs more detailed information to be best evaluated. It is highly possible that other kinds of toys, such as toy tank, that cause great interest of children and are bought by consumers. Another explanation of this fact is that the price of the toys made by other companies is much less than Hyper-Go Toy Company. It is equally probable that other toy corporations have sharply decreased the cost of producing toys and ameliorate the efficiency of their managers.
Thirdly, even though average family income is keeping growing, no information guarantees that people will spend more money on toys. The speaker is too cursory to assume this without taking more potential factors into account. People may nevertheless buy automobiles, renovate private residences, or go on a trip, which may lend support to the speaker's culmination.
In summary, the statement indeed suffers from a few vital fallacies as discussed above. To solidify the conclusion, the speaker would have to demonstrate that parents are an important element in the decline sales of toy airplane, and prove that other toy companies benefit mostly from their educational toys, and further provide more statistics about what purchases people are most concerned with.
Issue 26
TOPIC: ISSUE26 - "Most people would agree that buildings represent a valuable record of any society's past, but controversy arises when old buildings stand on ground that modern planners feel could be better used for modern purposes. In such situations, modern development should be given precedence over the preservation of historic buildings so that contemporary needs can be served."
WORDS: 561 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-5 11:22:14
The speaker asserts that old buildings should yield to modern development, provided that old architectures stand on place that contemporary planners feel could be better utilized for modern purposes. However, I tend to disagree with what advocated by the arguer. Albeit sometimes priority should be given to satisfy the needs of contemporaries, we ought to protect historical buildings under most circumstances.
Admittedly, certain old residences or historical buildings are of no much value in helping the populace understand history and traditional culture. In this case, the masses may have enough reasons to pull down out-of-date architectures and construct new buildings, such as museum, modern palace, or skyline tower, on original position where historical buildings lie. Perhaps the paradigmatic example is ordinary people's houses that may be refined or cast down if city planners find the district where old residences locate is quite suitable for shopping malls which can bring considerable profits to a city, which is better for advancement of the city. In addition, in certain other cases, some historical architecture represent special old ideal, or even anti-social ideology, such as the stature of Saddam; therefore, this kind of buildings should be pull down because they defy the mainstream of development.
However, in most cases, historical standings are symbols of traditional culture of a nation. These architectures and engineering are of high value in educating young generations to appreciate precious relics of our ancestors and in exhibiting how civilized and respectful a state is. Modern world is replete with examples of historical buildings preserved, instead of exterminated by modern planners. For instance, the Forbidden City in Beijing almost becomes a symbol of China. Political leaders have not yet pull it down and make tools of its vast area, even though the best location would be utilized for constructing large shopping centers. Instead, the Forbidden City is carefully protected by city planners and open to tourists. In doing so, many folks have opportunity for visiting this relic of Qing Dynasty and will certainly have better understanding of culture of Qing period.
Furthermore, historical engineering are also a symbol of the creative ability of a nation. Consider the Great Wall in China, one of the Seven Wonders of the World. Through studying this wall, modern historians can ferret out technologies used behind that wonder and have a clearer illustration of massive labors of that time, which is positive in contributing to the status of historical research. Moreover, sometimes modern planners even actively engage in finding prominent old architectures and preserve them on purpose. For instance, the Babylon City, built in Mesopotamia on the Euphrates River, was the site of the Hanging Gardens. Many historians are wanting to find whether the garden exist or not, in the present and the past. In short, when it comes to peculiar engineer that has profound meaning for our descendants, we should try our best to prevent it from being destroyed.
In summary, aside from few cases in which old building offers little value to society, in most cases we ought to consider alternative choice to put contemporary museums, malls, or towers. Once priceless and precious architectures were destroyed by us, they would never be restored to initial appearance, in which traditional culture and technology will be lost forever with the fall of historical buildings. Then, in the final analysis, I tend to disagree with the speaker's claim.
Issue 94 Argument 180
TOPIC: ISSUE94 - "Universities should require every student to take a variety of courses outside the student's field of study because acquiring knowledge of various academic disciplines is the best way to become truly educated."
WORDS: 450 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-4 21:07:51
Whether university students should take various courses, in fields outside their majors, hinges on the students' special areas. With respect to realms in which outside study is appropriate, I strongly accede to the speaker’s claim. University or college men will stand to gain in a variety of respects, provide that they enrich their specialties with experience in other academic areas.
To begin with, this statement requires qualifications in two aspects. In certain areas, there is no study to speak of outside major. This is especially true in mathematics; after all, what study outside major is there for students to engage in? In certain other academic areas, student's field of study typically involves the kind of learning of the sort that occurs outside specialty. This is particular inerrant in the study of language, which requires their participants actively engage in interacting with the real world.
Aside from these two qualifications, I strongly agree that it is worthwhile for students of universities to dabble in outside field of study in extensive realms. There are three dear benefits of doing so.
Firstly, in my experience as a student, my classmates who are actively engaged in learning all kinds of knowledge can understand principles and theories discussed in textbooks. For example, a student who studies in computer science is better able to produce a marvelous flash if he or she has been educated with necessary notions about aesthetics.
Secondly, by learning about further and broader knowledge, a student will be clearer of how to plan his or her career. For instance, a student who understands physics, music, and literature may have a deep interpretation about what the job he or she is going to find, because this student understands what these jobs of differing kinds entail. After balancing between several opportunities for career, the student may be better able to make a decision which is the best one for this student. After all, university career-planning staffers are neither equipped nor sufficient experienced to provide such professional advice for students.
The third benefit has to do with outcomes the students will ultimately contribute to society. For example, Aristotle, a pupil of Plato, mastered in a great many disciplines--such as logic, ethics, natural sciences, and poetics. It is these various respects of knowledge that catapulted Aristotle to a prominent figure in history of Ancient Greek. Another example is the discovery of alkali medals that were discovered because batteries were invented in physics and used in chemistry experiment. Therefore, students in chemistry should also study certain knowledge in physics.
To summary, aside from certain areas in which outside field of study is unavailable or unnecessary, universities should enrich students' knowledge though interspersing major with other courses.
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT180 - The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.
"Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read costs only $500 per employee-a small price to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course."
WORDS: 440 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-4 21:07:51
In this argument, the verdict given by the speaker is that Acme Publishing Company should send all of their employees to take the Easy Read course. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the improved productivity of other companies that have stated having their staffers take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course. Besides, by comparing the relatively low costs of the courses with the promising benefits to Acme, the speaker believes the conclusion will work. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several critical blemishes, as discussed below.
Firstly, the idea that the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb is quite ridiculous. As common sense, amount of information a person can interpret in a single day is limited by confines of the basic natural laws. It is impossible for a man or woman to understand everything he or she reads in finite time. Moreover, whether there is a need of surfing so many reports is not supported by the speaker. Perhaps a staffer in Acme merely has to view a two-page report per day.
Secondly, the reason why a graduate of the course rose from an assistant manager to vice president of a company in less than a year is not necessarily the fact that this graduate had taken the course. This quick promotion did have certain other explanations. Probably, that graduate attracted some funds from society and sharply increased the profit of that company. Therefore, this assistant manager received the reward of promotion due mainly to the funds instead of the course.
Thirdly, even though $500 per employee may be a paltry amount of money, the total expense of Acme can be extremely high. Since speaker fails to mention how many employee working in Acme, possibility that 3000 workers have to be sent to join the course, which amounts to 1,500,000 dollars. Then, Acme Company may not be able to afford so much cost. In addition, what function that the free lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter will work is also left untended by the speaker. Without demonstrating that this newsletter will no doubt provide valuable information, the speaker is too cursory to arrive at his or her ultimateness.
To summary, this statement indeed suffers from a few vital fallacies as discussed above. To support the conclusion, the arguer would have to manifest that graduates of the read course have actually contribute to increasing profit of the company, and prove that Acme has sufficient money to send all its staffers to take the Easy Read course. Without considering and ruling out these potential factors, this statement would otherwise be undermined.
Issue 136
TOPIC: ISSUE136 - "The absence of choice is a circumstance that is very, very rare."
WORDS: 517 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-3 16:20:38
This statement asserts that the situation when no choice is available is rare in daily life. I tend to agree with the speaker. Under the most circumstances, opportunities for selection can be easily checked out provided that we cogitate from a variety of perspectives--whether in politics, sciences, arts, or literature. In effect, absence of choice is the result of lacking sufficient contemplation.
Admittedly, in certain cases, we would be hard-pressed to agree or disagree with a matter, and difficult to say "no" or "yes" to a choice, but only have to accept it passively. For instance, in our common experience as human beings, the family circumstance is one incidence that we are not able to influence. After all, we inherently can not decide where we are born, and what occupation our parents serve to. As a result, even some people are disgruntled with their family--perhaps in wealth, social status, level of education, they have no alternative chances to determine achievements of their parents. Similarly, when faced with diseases, every one would choose to visit a doctor, instead of staying at home and enduring agony.
However, the case in which almost no choice is available actually does not exist pervasively. On the other hand, a great many splendid opportunities for decisions are supported to us, supposing that we take into account the special position, certain time, and particular figures. The speaker might claim that a staffer who works in a global corporation has to obey his or her boss's command and has no right to refuse. Yet, this conceived worker is still authorized by commerce laws that he or she can make an appointment with the manager. The employee may arrive at a choice that is best for him or her through having a talk with the manager or boss. For instance, Jobs, the chief executive of Apple Company, chose to stay back in Apple several years after he was fired by the board.
Furthermore, in the realm of history, the speaker's claim finds even less support. History is replete with examples of people who changed their destiny in tough circumstances. For example, black people were once treated as slaves by white farm owners in the south of America. But these "slaves" did not choose to comply with unfair and prejudice missions originating from their white "masters"; instead, they decided to revolute their fates and fight for their rights. Consequently, the will to select a differing style of life is the very cause of American Civil War which fulfilled the black's libertarian beliefs. Another paradigmatic example is Beethoven. When he began to loose his hearing in his thirties, Beethoven did not yield to his extremely bad ears and decided to continue composing without any hesitation. As a result, Beethoven had accomplished several profound works.
In summary, with few exceptions in which choices are hard to ferret out, opportunities for decisions can be found out, if we carefully consider all relative things, such as persons, time, and scenario, in tough cases. After a period of balancing between these matters, we will no doubt point out a few sound choices.
Argument 233
TOPIC: ARGUMENT233 - The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that builds shopping malls throughout the country.
"The surface of a section of Route 101, paved two years ago by McAdam Road Builders, is now badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section of Route 66, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition. Appian Roadways has recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery, and it has hired a new quality-control manager. Because of its superior work and commitment to quality, we should contract with Appian Roadways rather than McAdam Road Builders to construct the access roads for all our new shopping malls."
WORDS: 421 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-3 19:42:45
In this argument, the verdict is that Appian Roadways should be hired to construct the access roads for all new shopping malls, instead of McAdam Road. To support this conclusion, the speaker compares a section of Route 101 which is now severely damaged and paved by McAdam with a section of Route 66 which is still in good condition and paved by Appian Roadways. Besides, the fact that Appian has employed a new quality-control manager, which is considered as a great effort to guarantee quality, by the arguer. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this statement actually suffers from several critical blemishes, as discussed below.
To begin with, albeit road built two years ago by McAdam is worse than the condition of Route 66 built by Appian more than four years ago, it does not imply McAdam's work is worse than Appian's. Since the speaker fails to mention how heavy the traffic in these two roads, it is quite probable that a myriad of people, bicycles, automobiles use Route 101 while nearly no one go on Route 66. Therefore, it is the heavy traffic that causes the bad situation of Route 11 rather than a low level of quality.
Secondly, whether the new paving machinery purchased by Roadways will be used in next engineer is unknown. Maybe this action just ironically demonstrates that current paving machinery owned by Roadways is out of date. Moreover, no evidence is given by the speaker to prove that staffers in Roadways are already skilled in operating this new machinery. Their workers may need a large amount of time to master utilizing the new machinery, which may decrease the efficiency of Roadways.
Thirdly, the reason why Roadways signs with a new quality-control manager is also left untended in this statement. In any event, it is quite possible that the former manager was not competent in his or her position, and had constructed some roads that turned out to be bad works. Therefore, the quality constructed by McAdam Road Builders can not satisfy the needs of clientele in effect.
In summary, this statement indeed suffers from a few vital fallacies as discussed above. To solidify the ultimateness, the speaker would have to manifest that traffic on Route 101 and on Route 66 is the same, and prove that the new machinery and the new quality-control manager will undoubtedly contribute to roads which can withstand extraordinary heavy automobiles. Without considering and ruling out the factors aforementioned, the speaker is too cursory to arrive at his or her conclusion.
Argument 140
TOPIC: ARGUMENT140 - The following appeared in a report of the Committee on Faculty Promotions and Salaries at Elm City University.
"During her seventeen years as a professor of botany, Professor Thomas has proved herself to be well worth her annual salary of $50,000. Her classes are among the largest at the university, demonstrating her popularity among students. Moreover, the money she has brought to the university in research grants has exceeded her salary in each of the last two years. Therefore, in consideration of Professor Thomas' demonstrated teaching and research abilities, we recommend that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson; without such a raise and promotion, we fear that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college."
WORDS: 446 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-3 14:35:45
In this argument, the verdict is that Elm City University should offer a $10,000 additional salary raise to Professor Thomas and promote her to the dean of her department, in order to attract her to still work for Elm City University. To support this conclusion, the speaker cites that Thomas's classes are among the largest at the university and that during the past two years Thomas has brought more research grants than her wage each year. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several critical fallacies, as discussed below.
To begin with, the fact that plenty of students in Elm City University study in Thomas's classes does not necessarily imply that Thomas is quite popular among college men. Certain other explanations including that many students are required to go to Thomas's class does exist. Or classmates are highly disgruntled with the content and method of Thomas's teaching, which is left untended in this argument.
Secondly, albeit Thomas has brought greater research grants than her wage in each of the past two years, the speaker fails to mention the situation before two years ago. Perhaps for eight or ten years Professor Thomas had not attract even one dollar to university. Besides, the prospect of more research grants from society next year is hard to predict. In addition, provided that money brought to Elm City University by Thomas just slightly exceeds Thomas's payment, it is especially unreasonable that the majority of study funds are paid to Thomas. Furthermore, the speaker also fails to provide sufficient information about Thomas's outcomes of research and publication. We can not rule out the possibility that Thomas achieved no prominent result in the past two years.
Thirdly, since other faculty's wages are not manifested in this statement, Thomas may earn much higher than average level of other professors, including the chancellor of Elm City University. Therefore, a salary of $50,000 is enough for Thomas's daily expense, the university do not have to raise the pay of Thomas, which is already extraordinary high. Moreover, whether Thomas has the ability of managing a department is equally questionable. Maybe Thomas is not suitable for a position which demands a universal idea. And, there is no evidence that Thomas is malcontent with her current wage and is searching for a new job.
To summary, this statement indeed suffers from a few vital blemishes as discussed above. To solidify the ultimateness, the speaker would have to demonstrate that Thomas's classes are highly appraised by her students, and provide more detailed information about the funds out of the university. Without considering these potential factors, the arguer would be too cursory to arrive at the conclusion.
Issue 51 Argument 147
TOPIC: ISSUE51 - "Education will be truly effective only when it is specifically designed to meet the individual needs and interests of each student."
WORDS: 455 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-2 22:10:31
Is education truly effective only when specialized to cater the demand of each individual, as this statement maintains? However, in my view uniform education is better able to enhance a student's understanding of knowledge and help children develop a respectful manner. On the other hand, educators would be hard-pressed to carry out any practical educational policy when education is specifically designed.
Admittedly, distinct individual has differing characteristic from any one else. Besides, the ability of acquiring basic skills of learning and understanding further knowledge--such as advanced mathematical may be considerably different among a group of students. Therefore, these children or college men need special way of teaching and distinct parameters for evaluation. Without fostering them through various perspectives, educationalists may have difficulty in gracefully teaching students what they actually want to announce. For instance, in China, ancient method of teaching in class was to gather large group of people, typically 60 persons, and to explain principles and theories tediously. Not only did students feel bored about knowledge, teachers were depressed to find their students' negative feelings.
However, uniform education is a must in contemporary--whether in styles of teaching, what are explained and how grades are judged. The reason for this is simple: there are so innumerous learners that excessive specialized education lacks feasibility while the number of educators is far less than the number of students. For instance, in a high school located in my hometown, typically a physic teacher has to tackle problems arisen from about 150 students. This teacher would have no time to sleep provided that every two students demand a particular kind of education, or 75 categories of differing education must be worked out by this teacher.
Generally speaking, sometimes standard examination that all students should engage in has no alternative selections in special country or district. For instance, the entrance examination of university is just a archetype. Under this circumstance, perhaps no test taker wants to have special tests that are differing from a unique one, because fair chance of studying in a prominent university or college is the first factor to be considered. In addition, unique extensive form of education that concerns various realms can help an individual better master the basic knowledge about sciences, arts, humanities, and politics. Diverse textbooks concentrated in a variety of respects may better help a person expand his or her understanding in knowledge than a specialized education.
In summary, albeit specifically designed education can satisfy certain individuals' needs, universal style of teaching has more advantages that will guarantee fair competition, comprehensive knowledge from science to politics. Consequently, only by integrating special education and universal teaching together, education will be truly effective to influence students and thus satisfies differing needs and interests of each individual.
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 392 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-2 22:10:31
In this argument, the verdict is that the sales of video games produced by Whirlwind are likely to sharply increase in the next few months. To support this conclusion, the speaker cites the result of a survey which demonstrates that Whirlwind's new video games just satisfy the demands of market. Besides, advertising campaign is also reckoned as powerful evidence by the arguer. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this statement actually suffers from several critical fallacies, as discussed below.
To begin with, the credibility of the survey is quite questionable since no detailed information is given. For instance, whether participants of this study were random sampled is unknown. Perhaps these respondents were just a minority and thus did not represent the current consumers. Besides, the number of players was also left untended by the speaker. Maybe merely a few boys were asked what kind of video games they were fond of.
Secondly, the fact that lifelike graphics which require the most up-to-date computers may be just a sound reason for undermining the speaker's ultimateness. As common sense, price of the most recently computers is quite high, which may exceed the purchasing power of many people. Without owning a computer powerful enough, it seems that few people will purchase up-to-date video games, including those games designed by Whirlwind. Therefore, the sales of Whirlwind's video games may not have a considerable increase.
Thirdly, whether the extensive advertising campaign will conduce toward increasing purchases among people 10 to 25 is equally hard to say. People who are in their 10 to 25 may still study in school and they do not have substantial economic income as a result. Thus, even though these adolescents are quite eager to contribute to the profit of Whirlwind, they will not do so simply because they are not rich enough. Besides, whether this group of people actually is most likely to play video games lacks sufficient evidence. In addition, perhaps video games from rivals of Whirlwind are much more attractive to this age-group, which is not ruled out in this statement.
In summary, this statement indeed suffers from a few vital blemishes as discussed above. To solidify the conclusion, the speaker would have to demonstrate that the survey reflected the true ideas of the majority, and prove that people 10 to 25 have enough money to buy Whirlwind's products.
WORDS: 455 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-2 22:10:31
Is education truly effective only when specialized to cater the demand of each individual, as this statement maintains? However, in my view uniform education is better able to enhance a student's understanding of knowledge and help children develop a respectful manner. On the other hand, educators would be hard-pressed to carry out any practical educational policy when education is specifically designed.
Admittedly, distinct individual has differing characteristic from any one else. Besides, the ability of acquiring basic skills of learning and understanding further knowledge--such as advanced mathematical may be considerably different among a group of students. Therefore, these children or college men need special way of teaching and distinct parameters for evaluation. Without fostering them through various perspectives, educationalists may have difficulty in gracefully teaching students what they actually want to announce. For instance, in China, ancient method of teaching in class was to gather large group of people, typically 60 persons, and to explain principles and theories tediously. Not only did students feel bored about knowledge, teachers were depressed to find their students' negative feelings.
However, uniform education is a must in contemporary--whether in styles of teaching, what are explained and how grades are judged. The reason for this is simple: there are so innumerous learners that excessive specialized education lacks feasibility while the number of educators is far less than the number of students. For instance, in a high school located in my hometown, typically a physic teacher has to tackle problems arisen from about 150 students. This teacher would have no time to sleep provided that every two students demand a particular kind of education, or 75 categories of differing education must be worked out by this teacher.
Generally speaking, sometimes standard examination that all students should engage in has no alternative selections in special country or district. For instance, the entrance examination of university is just a archetype. Under this circumstance, perhaps no test taker wants to have special tests that are differing from a unique one, because fair chance of studying in a prominent university or college is the first factor to be considered. In addition, unique extensive form of education that concerns various realms can help an individual better master the basic knowledge about sciences, arts, humanities, and politics. Diverse textbooks concentrated in a variety of respects may better help a person expand his or her understanding in knowledge than a specialized education.
In summary, albeit specifically designed education can satisfy certain individuals' needs, universal style of teaching has more advantages that will guarantee fair competition, comprehensive knowledge from science to politics. Consequently, only by integrating special education and universal teaching together, education will be truly effective to influence students and thus satisfies differing needs and interests of each individual.
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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 392 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-2 22:10:31
In this argument, the verdict is that the sales of video games produced by Whirlwind are likely to sharply increase in the next few months. To support this conclusion, the speaker cites the result of a survey which demonstrates that Whirlwind's new video games just satisfy the demands of market. Besides, advertising campaign is also reckoned as powerful evidence by the arguer. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this statement actually suffers from several critical fallacies, as discussed below.
To begin with, the credibility of the survey is quite questionable since no detailed information is given. For instance, whether participants of this study were random sampled is unknown. Perhaps these respondents were just a minority and thus did not represent the current consumers. Besides, the number of players was also left untended by the speaker. Maybe merely a few boys were asked what kind of video games they were fond of.
Secondly, the fact that lifelike graphics which require the most up-to-date computers may be just a sound reason for undermining the speaker's ultimateness. As common sense, price of the most recently computers is quite high, which may exceed the purchasing power of many people. Without owning a computer powerful enough, it seems that few people will purchase up-to-date video games, including those games designed by Whirlwind. Therefore, the sales of Whirlwind's video games may not have a considerable increase.
Thirdly, whether the extensive advertising campaign will conduce toward increasing purchases among people 10 to 25 is equally hard to say. People who are in their 10 to 25 may still study in school and they do not have substantial economic income as a result. Thus, even though these adolescents are quite eager to contribute to the profit of Whirlwind, they will not do so simply because they are not rich enough. Besides, whether this group of people actually is most likely to play video games lacks sufficient evidence. In addition, perhaps video games from rivals of Whirlwind are much more attractive to this age-group, which is not ruled out in this statement.
In summary, this statement indeed suffers from a few vital blemishes as discussed above. To solidify the conclusion, the speaker would have to demonstrate that the survey reflected the true ideas of the majority, and prove that people 10 to 25 have enough money to buy Whirlwind's products.
Issue 207
TOPIC: ISSUE207 - "Rituals and ceremonies help define a culture. Without them, societies or groups of people have a diminished sense of who they are."
WORDS: 445 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-4-1 16:19:12
The speaker asserts that it is the public activity, such as rituals and ceremonies, that define a culture, and that groups of people may dismiss themselves without turning to these public activities for reference. I strongly agree with this statement. Culture is a spiritual matter that manifests itself in people's enduring engaging in sociopolitical activities. Moreover, any one who fails to observe their surroundings may tend to obscure their values.
To begin with, we must have a clear notion about what is a culture. From the developments of history, culture may be defined as one characterized by ideology, attitudes about politics, and ethics. Besides, when it comes to certain detailed realm, such as sciences, arts, and politics, culture's influence on their prominent elites can be easily found. For example, Western culture and civilization owes its very existence to a special activity held in monasteries, in which many people acquired artifacts, art works and manuscripts together, when the Roman Empire was declining from its apex.
In ancient Greek, people almost always gathered in a particular space, such as a artistic hall, where they discussed a variety of questions. For example, Aristotle and Plato just actively engaged in classes, which defines the ancient thought on sciences and arts of Greek. In the realm of society and politics, civilization is especially characterized by various activities celebrated by people. For instance, in China, the Spring Festival is the most paramount ceremony in almost the whole people's minds. In this festival, people invite their intimate friends to have dinner together and give some presents to the youngest members of families. Therefore, through this certain activity, Chinese traditional culture is defined to be a respectful and tolerant one, in which concord is easily to be found.
In contemporary, more and more kinds of cultures appear in the form of groups of adherents, and differing people who have distinct cultural ideologies may seek to discover their own values of existence by actively taking part in these groups. This is especially true among young generations. Consider the Hip-Hop culture which is quite popular among young persons in America. Members of the group of Hip-Hop typically wear extremely huge and large costume, in order to display their inner unrestrained convictions. Moreover, from the Hip-Hop group, we can conclude that the general American culture is a tolerant and civilized one in respect that Hip-Hop is reckoned as a normal culture among most Americans.
In summary, various rituals and ceremonies have played a pivotal role in defining a culture, through joining which many people clearly evaluate themselves. On the other hand, culture can represent a nation's pervasive attitudes and values towards society, ethics and politics.
Argument 203
TOPIC: ARGUMENT203 - The following appeared in a newspaper feature story.
"At the small, nonprofit hospital in the town of Saluda, the average length of a patient's stay is two days; at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days. Also, the cure rate among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient than the hospital in Megaville, and there are few complaints about service at the local hospital. Such data indicate that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals."
WORDS: 404 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-1 14:37:57
In this argument, the speaker concludes that treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals is less economical and of worse quality than treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals. To support this verdict, the arguer compares the hospital in the town of Saluda and the hospital in the nearby city of Megaville in several aspects--for example, cure rate, number of employees per patient and patients' complaints. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several critical blemishes, as discussed below.
To begin with, albeit the average length of a patient's stay in the hospital of Meagville is three times as the period of average stay in Saluda, it does not necessarily imply that efficiency of doctors in Saluda is far higher than those in Megaville. It is quite probable that doctors in Saluda chiefly tackle common disease, such as flu, headache, etc, while the hospital in Megaville is mainly curing cancer, fracture, to name just a few, which would otherwise undermine the conclusion. Moreover, from the cure rate of these two differing hospitals, the possibility aforementioned may actually reflect the truth.
Secondly, the fact that Saluada hospital has more doctors and nurses per patient than the hospital in Megaville may have alternative explanations. This fact fails to tell us how many patients per day each hospital will receive. Perhaps merely a few patients go to Saluda hospital for medical care; on the other hand, a myriad of people who are sick visit the hospital in Megaville. Therefore, though the number of doctors in Megaville hospital is indeed less than the number in Saluda hospital, we could not conclude that patients in Megaville hospital are not sufficiently coddled.
Thirdly, more complaints about Megaville hospital than Saluda hospital also is not powerful evidence of the speaker's culmination. This statement does not mention the proportion of patients who complain about service at each hospital. Therefore, it is quite possible that the result of a great number of patients in Megaville plus a much small proportion surpasses the number of complaints in Saluda. In effect, the Megaville hospital indeed has a better service than Saluda hospital.
In summary, this statement actually suffers from a few vital fallacies as discussed above. To solidify the conclusion, the speaker would have to demonstrate that the numbers of patients who go to Saluda hospital or Megaville hospital is the same, and further prove these two hospitals tackle the same kinds of diseases.
Argument 7
TOPIC: ARGUMENT7 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved." WORDS: 339 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-1 19:06:39
In this argument, the verdict is that the environment problems in Clearview will surely be solved if Ann Green wins the mayoral election. To support this conclusion, the speaker chiefly argues that Ann is devoted to protecting environment, and that a myriad of environment issues including pollution and more patients with respiratory illnesses appear under the lead of Frank Braun. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this statement actually suffers from several critical blemishes, as discussed below.
To begin with, albeit Ann is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, whether Ann will make great contributions to Clearview town is unknown. Perhaps Ann just says he or she will work effectively to ameliorate local environment, but no practical deeds have been fulfilled. Besides, the speaker also does not mention whether Frank Braun, the current mayor, has policing some policies to prevent natural circumstance from being destroyed. Lacking enough information about environment laws at present would undermine the speaker's conclusion.
Secondly, the credibility of the three phenomena the speaker cites in this statement is quite questionable. First, the number of factories in Clearview has doubled does not necessarily imply that these factories has no doubt caused pollution. It is highly possible that chief executives of factories have adopted powerful environment-friendly methods that will not pollute river, grass, air, etc. Secondly, increased air pollution levels may be caused by corporations in nearby cities, because air easily moves around. Thirdly, the actual reason why incidences of respiratory illnesses have increased by 25 percent is known. It is quite probable that certain flu happened last year caused the improvement of patients. Without considering these potential factors, the speaker is too cursory to arrives his or her ultimateness.
In summary, this statement indeed suffers from a few crucial fallacies as discussed above. To solidify the conclusion, the arguer would have to demonstrate that Frank Braun displays an aloof attitude toward environment, and further prove that the current air pollution and increased patients with respiratory illnesses is indeed caused by larger number of factories.
Issue 48
TOPIC: ISSUE48 - "The study of history places too much emphasis on individuals. The most significant events and trends in history were made possible not by the famous few, but by groups of people whose identities have long been forgotten."
WORDS: 535 TIME: 00:45:00 DATE: 2008-3-31 15:57:14
The speaker asserts that the most significant historical and trends were made possible by groups of people, instead of the famous few; and that the study of history should accentuate the former rather than the latter. However, in my view the arguer fails to consider a variety of distinguished individuals who have contributed profoundly to the status of historical footnote. Therefore, I concede that some certain groups of people did contribute to particular historical events. Nevertheless, the famous few should be put in the first place when we study history.
Admittedly, in history special groups of people had played a pivotal role in significant advancements--whether in politics, arts or sciences. For instance, the study of history and appreciation of arts tends to research groups of people in the Middle Ages; and researchers study the culture created by the multitudes, instead of a few famous painters or musicians. Besides, western civilization owes its very existence to Benedictine nuns, instead of a monk named FA. Just prior to and during the decline of the Rome Empire, many women fled to monasteries, bringing with them various dowries which they used to acquire artifacts and knowledge. Without these nuns, the western culture would otherwise have to be lost forever with the fall of the Rome Empire.
Nevertheless, many great individuals have contributed profoundly to the advancements of history in many realms, in which groups of people become nameless and faceless. Consider, for instance, the American Civil War conducted by Abraham Lincoln. Albeit many other people worked their own functions to the war, it is Lincoln that abolished unfair laws in the south of America and justified the rights of black people. Or consider any noble innovations in technology, almost all of which are made possible by prominent individuals. Microsoft's Bill Gates is largely responsible for the Windows series operating systems, which have extensively altered the style of life. Greatness happened in natural sciences are also achievements of special individuals, such as classical mechanics by Newton, the theory of relativity by Albert Einstein and the model of plane by Wright brothers. More importantly, no group of people played a vital role when in retrospect.
The speaker might point out that in the fields of architecture and engineering, in which groups of people were the primary force behind illustrious accomplishments--such as the Great Wall and Pyramid. Yet, it is "the famous few"--monarchs in these cases whose whims and egos were the source of power behind these great architectures. The arguer may also cite the example of various significant political activities in which innumerous groups of people participated in history. This will be easily refuted provide that these groups were leaderless ones. Without a determinant key leader, few groups of people would succeed in bringing to the masses great influences. For instance, Chinese people would have still been pressed by Japanese unless Mao Zedong led the Liberated War. Without Mahatma Gandhi, advocator of the nonviolent disobedience tactic, India would be still ruled by British.
In summary, the speaker overlooks many great individuals in history that have conduced towards a myriad of significant events and trends. Today, when studying historical matters, we can learn a lot from great figures more than learning about ordinary groups of people.
Argument 165
TOPIC: ARGUMENT165 - The following appeared in a business magazine.
"As a result of numerous consumer complaints of dizziness and nausea, Promofoods requested that eight million cans of tuna be returned for testing last year. Promofoods concluded that the cans did not, after all, contain chemicals that posed a health risk. This conclusion is based on the fact that the chemists from Promofoods tested samples of the recalled cans and found that, of the eight chemicals most commonly blamed for causing symptoms of dizziness and nausea, five were not found in any of the tested cans. The chemists did find that the three remaining suspected chemicals are naturally found in all other kinds of canned foods."
WORDS: 336 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-3-31 13:58:42
The verdict of this statement is that tuna cans produced by Promofoods last year were healthy; therefore tuna cans were not the cause of consumer's dizziness and nausea. To support this conclusion, the speaker cites the result of experiment conducted by chemists from Promofoods: merely three chemicals were found in tuna cans and these three chemicals were common in any other kind of canned foods. This statement seems reasonable at first glance; however, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this statement actually suffers from several blemishes, which would be discussed below.
Firstly, identification of the leaders of the survey would undermine the credibility of ultimateness: these chemists were employed by Promofoods. It is highly possible that these scientists were influenced or threatened by chief executive of Promofoods. Therefore, chemists who conducted the test of tuna cans may offer a false report that defied the truth.
Secondly, whether the tested tuna cans were based on random sampling is unknown. Perhaps chemists intentionally selected those tuna cans that were quite unlikely to be proved to contain disease-causing chemicals. It is also equally probable that merely 10 cans were sampled from eight million cans of tuna, which thus did not represent the majority of these cans. Consequently, any factor aforementioned above would undermine the conclusion.
Thirdly, even though the test conducted by Promofoods is fair and objective, the result did not consider certain other possible factors that might lend the support to this statement. Actually speaking, how many the three suspected chemicals had been discovered in sample is not touched. Therefore, we can not rule out the possibility that these three chemicals far outweighed standard of canned foods; therefore, it is actually these three excessive chemicals that contributed to dizziness and nausea of clientele.
In summary, this statement fails to convince us in many respects, as discussed above. To support the culmination, the speaker would have to demonstrate that chemists of Promofoods reported the truth of survey, and further provide more detailed information about the three kinds of suspected chemicals.
Argument 53
TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 409 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-3-31 21:52:25
In this argument, the speaker claims that increased levels of melatonin before a child's birth will conduce towards shyness throughout this child's lifetime. To support this verdict, the arguer cites a study on a group of 25 infants, conducted by researchers thirteen years ago, who showed somewhat distress when exposed to unfamiliar circumstance. Besides, a follow-up study is also quoted by the arguer to demonstrate the conclusion. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this argument actually suffers from several fallacies, as discussed below.
To begin with, the phenomenon that infants exhibited distress when exposed to an unusual odor or an unknown voice is quite normal. As a fresh life in the world, any one would feel somewhat of tension or nervous while his or her mother is not present. Moreover, this study of a group of 25 infants were held 13 years ago, which might not comply today's outcomes of research. Therefore, the credibility of this study is poorly supported by empirical proof.
Secondly, whether the infants involved in the research 13 years ago were random sampled is unknown. This statement does not refer to any condition of how special these infants were. Perhaps researchers selected those infants who were born in autumn on purpose, which would undermine this statement. In addition, it is equally possible that another chemical also increases in response to declining daylight. The speaker fails to rule out this potential chemical that may be the real reason for those infants' shyness.
Thirdly, the follow-up research conducted earlier this year is quite questionable and is not convincing as the speaker assumes. First, the results of this study are based on self-report. Thus we can not figure out whether these children actually express their inner feelings. It is probable that they had just experienced uninspiring things before they responded to questions in this study. Secondly, these children's shyness may due mainly to parental influence or deeply shaped by their seminal childhood event. In short, without considering these potential factors, the arguer is too cursory to arrive at his or her ultimateness.
To summary, this statement indeed suffers from a few critical flaws, as discussed above. To solidify the conclusion, the speaker would have to demonstrate that infants in the first study were chosen on the foundation of random sampling, and further prove that these infants are not affected by any other things during their maturing. Consequently, we need more detailed information to evaluate this statement.
Issue 208
TOPIC: ISSUE208 - "The way people look, dress, and act reveals their attitudes and interests. You can tell much about a society's ideas and values by observing the appearance and behavior of its people."
WORDS: 503 TIME: 00:48:10 DATE: 2008-3-28 14:49:48
The speaker asserts that people's attitudes and interests can be concluded from their daily behavior, and thus the appearance and behavior of a society's masses can unveil this society's ideas and values. I strongly accede to what the arguer proclaims. In effect, any society consists of various groups of people who represent certain culture or special-interest. Actions or speeches that people unconsciously exhibit do reflect the basic and true ideology of their inner conviction, and these actions and speeches therefore unmask the attitudes and values of the society that composed by these people.
To begin with, what people dress can uncover their inner convictions and divide these people into differing cultural or racial groups. Consequently, a person can be judged what peculiar group or team he or she belongs in light of his or her clothes. Consider, for instance, the Hip-Hop culture which is popular among young people in America. This kind of culture typically requires his adherents to wear extremely loose and huge clothe that is quite distinctive from any one else. Therefore suppose that a young man wearing extremely T-shirt walks towards you, he must be a member of the Hip-Hop cultural group. Moreover, it can be concluded that America is quite tolerant to special culture, provided that this culture does not advocate any behavior that poses harm to society.
Secondly, actions of a society's people can also unveil their ideology and sociopolitical assertions. Whether the society can tolerate its people's various behavior stands whether it is a respectful and civilized social community. For instance, several years ago in Tiananmen, China saw innumerous people accumulated there protesting Japan. The reason for this was simple: Japan amended history textbooks and refuted to admit that Japan once intruded China in the 1940s. Albeit these people were very disgruntled with the government of Japan, they did not adopt any kind of action of violence. Therefore these people were very respectful and reasonable with a view to their mild behavior in this incidence. Moreover, it is also conspicuous that the community was healthy and had exhibit high civilized morality.
In the realm of education, school children's behavior is quite different from other people who have grown up to be adults. These teenagers have not been socialized by any harmful event in society, and what they allege actually unveils the extent how a society is civilized. For instance, some young adolescents fostered by certain anti-social persons in Afghanistan, deeply believe in the ideology: they are prepared for body-bomb. Thus the society lacks basic ethics, which can be affirmed from the convictions of these children and the anti-social persons. By contrast, nations in Europe are highly developed and manifest their tolerant, respectful and civilized society in the terms of European splendid level of education.
In summary, certain group of people has distinctive characteristics that differentiate the group from any other ones. These features represent their people's attitudes and interests. Furthermore, the society's ideas and attitudes can be judged by observing how the society treats these special groups.
Argument 45
TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 420 TIME: 00:30:21 DATE: 2008-3-28 21:24:30
The conclusion of this statement is that deer being unable to conform to their traditional migration patterns between islands has caused the decrease of the number of arctic deer. To justify this verdict, the speaker cites the report of local hunters and quotes the effect that the recent global warming trends have on sea ice. However, close scrutiny of evidence unveils that this statement actually suffers from critical fallacies that would undermine the ultimateness.
Consider first the recent information reported by local hunters. These hunters said that the deer populations were declining. However, lacking sufficient evidence makes the reports unpersuasive. All what this statement provides is this result, without any cogent statistic data. Perhaps the hunters were merely engaged in hunting in just a few islands, but the area in which arctic deer live is quite broad. Thus, the credibility of hunters' observation is highly questionable. Moreover, it is equally probable that hunters are the very cause of the decrease of arctic deer. The reason for this is simple: hunters killed the deer. Since the arguer does not tell what kind of animal local hunters pursue, this possibility can not be ruled out.
Consider next the reason that the speaker considers as powerful. Albeit global warming trends is no doubt a fact, this trend is far more from the direct cause of diminishing number of arctic deer. For instance, whether the special ice that melted by higher climate is the very location where arctic deer live is unknown. Maybe the district where these deer search for food is left untended by the worldwide increasing temperature; therefore arctic deer have not influenced by this trend. In addition, supposing that worldwide warming climate has indeed melt the ice that surround the place where arctic deer live, as the speaker maintains, it is highly possible that certain island where arctic deer are fostering their next generation also is becoming warmer, and is abundant of delicious food. Consequently, arctic deer have no longer to move from one island to another and the population of deer keeps the same as before. In short, without considering and ruling out these and other possible potential factors, the speaker is too cursory to arrive at his or her conclusion.
From what discussed above, this statement indeed suffers from several flaws that would weaken the conclusion. To solidify the reasoning, the speaker would have to provide more detailed information about what the local hunters actually had finished, and further demonstrate that islands where arctic deer live are not affected by global warming trends.
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